BlackRock Vice Chairman Bob Doll tells CNBC that, while the economy isn’t good, “some [analysts] have gone too far to the negative side,” and says that those analysts who have estimated $40 in per-share S&P 500 earnings for 2009 “are going to have to raise their numbers.” “Two months ago, it looked like a black [...]
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Archive | April, 2009
Wharton Prof Duel: Siegel vs. Stambaugh
April 29, 2009
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Several weeks back we highlighted a new study that found stocks are actually more risky in the long run than they are in the short run. Today in an interview posted on the University of Pennsylvania’s Knowledge@Wharton web site, two Wharton School professors — Robert Stambaugh, one of that study’s co-authors, and Jeremy Siegel — [...]
Read moreYardeni’s 12 Reasons for Optimism
April 29, 2009
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Yes, the news this morning is filled with swine flu and a bigger-than-expected first-quarter GDP drop, but Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research — who has a pretty good track record of economic forecasting, including his solid calls on the last recession recovery in 2003 — is offering several reasons for economic optimism. (A tip of [...]
Read moreThe Great Depression “25-Year Recovery” Myth
April 28, 2009
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If you’re worried about stocks taking a period of many, many years to recover following the recent market plunge, Mark Hulbert offers some insightful — and encouraging — news in The New York Times. While many have cited the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average took 25 years to get back to its pre-Great-Depression [...]
Read moreGuru Upgrades/Downgrades: Morgan Stanley Falling, Petrobras Rising
April 28, 2009
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Each week, I take a look at which stocks my Validea.com Guru Strategy computer models have newfound interest in, and which they have soured on. Here’s a look at some of the stocks that my strategies have upgraded or downgraded today (overall, upgrades slightly outnumber downgrades):
Read moreArnott: Value Stocks Priced at or below Depression Levels
April 27, 2009
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Researcher and money manager Rob Arnott has made a lot of headlines lately with his focus on the bond market, but in yesterday’s Financial Times he keyed in on another asset class — and it’s one that he says is extremely cheap right now: deep value stocks. “Most investors,” writes Arnott, “do not yet realise [...]
Read moreTilson, Heins, and Recency Bias
April 27, 2009
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How did so many investors and analysts fail to recognize the looming economic and stock market crises in recent years? In their latest Forbes column, Whitney Tilson and John Heins say that “recency bias” is a big reason — and a major challenge facing all investors. “One of the more insidious investor biases is a [...]
Read moreBarron’s Top Advisors
April 23, 2009
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Barron’s has unveiled its annual “Top 100 Financial Advisors” feature, with the new #1 being Gregory Vaughan of Morgan Stanley in Menlo Park, California — and the theme of the article being how these advisors are rethinking their approaches given the recent market meltdown. The top advisors “are giving diversification a thorough rethinking,” Barron’s Suzanne [...]
Read moreBiggs vs. Mauldin: Will The Rally Hold?
April 22, 2009
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The big question in the market these days is, of course, whether the current rally is really the start of a new bull run, or if it is another bear market head fake. And two interesting, differing takes on the topic come from top strategists Barton Biggs and John Mauldin. In a recent CNBC interview, [...]
Read moreRisk and Asset Allocation
April 22, 2009
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In a piece written for Forbes’ Intelligent Investing section, David Serchuk today offers some interesting data on risk and portfolio management. One point made by several of those Serchuk interviewed is that asset allocation is a crucial, and often overlooked, key to managing risk. “The macro-picture here is that asset allocation remains an easy way [...]
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