In a recent article for the CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, James Montier, Societe Generale Cross Asset Research’s global strategist, argues that the recent economic crisis and market plunge were not, as many have said, an unprecedented, unpredictable “black swan” event. Instead, he says the events have the characteristics of what psychologists call a “predictable [...]
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Archive | May, 2009
Gurus Have Medtronic, TJX on the Move
May 20, 2009
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Each week, I take a look at which stocks my Validea.com Guru Strategy computer models have newfound interest in, and which they have soured on. Here’s a look at some of the stocks that my strategies have upgraded or downgraded today:
Read moreMunger on Success, Economists, and Why the Feds Got Lehman Right
May 19, 2009
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In a wide-ranging interview, Charles Munger — Warren Buffett’s longtime partner at Berkshire Hathaway — tells the Stanford Lawyer why he and Buffett have been so successful, why economists so often fail, and why he thinks the federal government was right to let Lehman Brothers fail. “Warren and I have skills that could easily be [...]
Read moreRecession Over? Top Strategist Says ‘Yes’ — Cautiously
May 19, 2009
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Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab & Co. — who accurately called the start of the current recession in December 2007 — says she thinks the recession is now over. But, she adds, don’t confuse that wiith “runaway optimism” about the economy. “I’ve been asked a lot, ‘please tell me when [...]
Read moreLynch Pupil Makes Major Bank Move
May 18, 2009
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FBR Funds Chief Investment Officer David Ellison, who avoided much of the financial sector meltdown, has been buying up bank shares lately — and a big reason, he says, involves the lessons he learned while working under the great Peter Lynch earlier in his career. According to Reuters, Ellison had just 10% of the FBR [...]
Read moreThe Real Question
May 18, 2009
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(Excerpted from John Reese’s May 15 Validea Hot List newsletter) The big question for the market continues to be whether or not the recent rally is for real. Given the cooling off of the past week or so, the weaker-than-hoped-for April retail sales data, and the fact that we’ve just gone through one of the [...]
Read moreOpposing Views from Two Top Market-Timers
May 15, 2009
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Which way is the market headed? In articles on MarketWatch.com and Bloomberg.com, two market-timers with good track records lay out starkly different viewpoints on the issue. On the bullish side is Gray Emerson Cardiff of the Sound Advice investment newsletter, according to Peter Brimelow of MarketWatch. The newsletter has averaged a 7.16% annual return over [...]
Read moreHulbert: Fear Is Encouraging
May 15, 2009
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In his latest column for MarketWatch, newsletter-watcher Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest makes an interesting observation about fear and contrarian investing, one that echoes the findings of one of the great gurus we follow, Martin Zweig. Writing about the recent Las Vegas Money Show, Hulbert says that sentiment among the conference’s presenters was decidedly [...]
Read moreGuru Upgrades/Downgrades: IBM, UPS, Amazon All on the Move
May 14, 2009
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Each week, I take a look at which stocks my Validea.com Guru Strategy computer models have newfound interest in, and which they have soured on. Here’s a look at some of the stocks that my strategies have upgraded or downgraded today — as you’ll see, the list includes some big names:
Read moreWhy Those 1982 Valuations Might Never Come
May 13, 2009
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As the current market rally has evolved, one of the main arguments against this being the start of a new bull market has involved valuations. While value metrics like the 10-year P/E ratio and Tobin’s Q have been low compared to historical standards, they haven’t gotten as low as they have in other past downturns. [...]
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