July 10, 2009
In a recent interview with Steve Forbes, value investor Whitney Tilson — who called the housing bust — says that he expects it will be another 12 months before the economy bottoms, but adds that he still sees plenty of opportunities in the market. Tilson says his hedge funds have scaled back their equity positions a bit but remain net long, having gone from a 100% long/50% short approach a few months back to an 80% long/50% short position today. Tilson says he foresees a choppy market for the next couple years as corporate profitability will face big headwinds. But, he adds that it appears likely that we’ve staved off “Armageddon” scenarios that were very real not too long ago.
In addition, Tilson also talks about why he thinks we’re headed away from the recent macro-driven environment to a stock-picker’s market; why he thinks Berkshire Hathaway is still a very good buy; why commercial real estate is a coming “train wreck” for the financial sector; and why investors shouldn’t buy financial stocks unless they really know how to assess a firm and its balance sheet.
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As much as I love Buffett, Tilson’s wrong on Berkshire. He thinks it is undervalued because of the puts options Buffett has written on the market. I think the market is past that issue. Instead, the concern is the ecletic collection of businesses Buffett has collected will trade at significant discount who Buffett is gone. These businesses aren’t integrated and some have been starved for capital.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/whitney-tilson-why-there-is-more-pain.html
isn’t Whitney Tilson something of a fraud? Why do people insist on listening to him? His actual investing track record gives value investing a bad name. Read what others have said about Tilson.
http://www.1440wallstreet.com/index.php/site/comments/60_minutes_whitney_tilsons_publicist_strikes_again/
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