Doll: “New Normal” Could Look Like an Older Normal

In an interview with MarketWatch’s Chuck Jaffe, Blackrock Global Chief Investment Officer of Equities Bob Doll gives his take on what to expect from the economy and the markets as we move past the financial crisis and recession. The “new normal” Doll envisions isn’t as bleak as some have described, but it’s also not euphoric. He thinks it may look something like what we saw in the early 1990s, before the Internet and credit bubbles grew out of control. That means sustainable growth of 2.5% to 3% in real GDP, profits generally moving upward, markets moving up more often than they move down, periodic recessions — and a consumer that contributes to growth, though perhaps not quite as much as they have in recent years.

Doll also says he doesn’t think we’ll have a “double-dip”, or “W” recession. But he does think that growth will likely be slower in 2010 than it will be in the second half of 2009. Doll says a diversified portfolio should be key in the new normal, and offers several picks in the energy, healthcare, and technology sectors. And, he highlights a few potential problems that could derail the recovery.