September 29, 2010
While the National Bureau of Economic Research recently declared that the so-called Great Recession ended in June of 2009, John Hussman says that doesn’t mean the economic pain is over.
In his latest market commentary for Hussman Funds, Hussman says that data cited by NBER itself shows that we may already be headed back into another recession. “If we had good reason to expect positive economic tailwinds, we would be less concerned about the present deterioration” in economic indicators, Hussman says. “Unfortunately, my impression is that the bulk of the growth that we did observe coming off of the June 2009 economic low was driven by a burst of stimulus spending coupled with a variety of programs to pull economic activity forward. My concern is that these synthetic factors are now trailing off, with little intrinsic economic activity to carry a recovery forward.”
Hussman says his valuation metrics “suggest clear overvaluation” for the market. He says both his funds are taking very defensive positions.
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