MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert says the stock market’s May-June correction failed to do what corrections are supposed to do: knock excessive optimism out of the market.
Hulbert says that the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timers (as measured by his Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index) was 53.1% on Aug. 21, still well above the 42.1% level seen at the May 1 market high. And the average recommended exposure of market timers he tracks who focus on the Nasdaq index is at 58.8%, exactly double the 29.4% level seen on May 1.
“These sentiment comparisons show that the stock market’s May-June correction failed to do what corrections are supposed to do — wring some of the optimism and enthusiasm out of the market, thereby giving it better odds of rallying to a new high after recovering from the correction,” Hulbert writes.
Hulbert doesn’t sound optimistic about the market climbing to new highs. “It would have been nice if, in compensation for the agony suffered in May and early June, the market at the very least was in better shape than it was then to make a serious shot at new all-time highs,” he says. “Unfortunately, it is not.”