It seems that hedge fund guru Ray Dalio’s take on China has changed — though to what degree is debatable.
Investors have been bullish for some time on areas in which central banks have opened the liquidity spigot. But Mohamed El-Erian says it’s time to focus on other opportunities, including tech start-ups and private equity.
At an Investment conference in New York on July 15th, billionare Carl Icahn told the audience of an impending high yield bond market crash. But top bond manger Mark Notin is not so concerned.
Contrarian guru David Dreman says that, while he sees a couple of big economic risks for the US right now, he’s still bullish on the stock market. Why? Because there just aren’t other attractive options.
In his latest Forbes column, Dreman says that the lack of wage growth for the middle and working classes and misguided Federal Reserve policies are big concerns. But there’s nowhere else to turn for decent returns, he says. “The chance of a 5% to 10% return on equity investments sure beats 3% on 30-year Treasurys,” he writes. “Remember that inflation is the enemy of long bond holders. A 1% rise in rates results in an 18% drop in principal on a 30-year bond. By contrast, inflation has always been a major supporter of stocks over time. Since 1945, for example, the dollar has lost 92% of its purchasing power. The Dow Jones industrial average, by comparison, is up 93 times from the beginning of 1946.”
Dreman says he thinks the best way to invest given lofty market valuations is to buy bank stocks. “Financial institutions are now finally emerging into a new, far more positive world,” he writes. “Most have adjusted to the new heavily regulated environment, and loan demand is rising. Higher interest rates should increase spread income over time. Importantly, American banks have some of the lowest loan-to-capital ratios in the world. This combination should result in both higher dividends and appreciation over the next few years.”
Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller says US stocks are among the most overpriced in the world. But he’s not ditching American equities altogether.
Recently, David Herro of Harris Associates spoke to CNBC about his thoughts on the Greece instability, and how that affects European investments — and the top fund manager’s outlook may well surprise you.
Bond guru Bill Gross says that, once the global flood of quantitative easing ends, we could be in for another liquidity crisis.