Roundtable: Gross, Herro, Cohen And Others On What To Expect In 2015

A number of the world’s top investment strategists recently gathered for Barron’s annual roundtable to offer their thoughts on where the economy and markets are heading. David Herro, Abby Joseph Cohen, Bill Gross, and Marc Faber were among those who participated, and overall the mood was subdued. “On the whole, they expect interest rates to stay unnaturally low, and the U.S. to lead the world in economic growth,” writes Barron’s Lauren R. Rublin. “Yet, they doubt that will translate into robust gains for the stock market. Scott Black’s expectation that the Standard & Poor’s 500 will return 10% this year — an 8% price advance and a 2% dividend yield — was as rosy as it got. Marc Faber, we feel compelled to warn you, thinks the market already has made its high for 2015.”

Barron’s also included one-on-one interviews with many of the strategists. In the clip below, Gross talks about his outlook for how the current global debt overload will play out, and discusses where investors should be looking right now.

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Doll On The Dollar, Oil, And The Fed

A stronger dollar and falling oil prices tend to help the economy, but right now those two factors aren’t helping stocks, Nuveen’s Bob Doll says.
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The Best Sector For The Long Haul Isn’t What You Might Think

Every other issue of the Validea Hot List newsletter examines one the investing greats behind John P. Reese’s computerized Guru Strategies. This latest issue looks at the James O’Shaughnessy’s research into the best sector for the long term.

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The Small-Cap Effect Lives — With A Twist

Small stocks have lagged their larger peers over the past decade. But does that mean the “small-firm effect” is dead? Not exactly, says Mark Hulbert in a recent Barron’s column.

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Three Beaten-Down Oil Stocks Graham and Greenblatt Might Like

In his latest column for Canada’s Globe and Mail, Validea CEO John Reese says that the recent plunge in oil prices and oil stocks has made for opportunities for strong-stomached investors.

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Back To The 90s? Get Ready For Crises Within A Bull, Sonders Says

Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders says she expects the bull market to roll on, but she wouldn’t be surprised to see some major speed bumps along the way.

Speaking at the Inside ETFs conference, Sonders said she wouldn’t be surprised if, within this bull market, we started to see financial crises rear their heads in areas like commodities and emerging markets, as was the case in the 1990s, Financial Advisor reports. She also said that “this might be the year Main Street feels better than Wall Street.”

Investment News reported, meanwhile, that Sonders said there “is a slightly elevated risk of a 10% correction this year”. But she doesn’t think the bull is done. “I have some short-term concerns, but I personally think the bull market we’re in now will be the best is our lifetime,” she said, noting that U.S. businesses “are sitting on a huge hoard of cash, which is at a level not seen since World War II” while inflation remains low. “The money is not multiplying and that has held inflation in check, but it has also kept economic growth low,” she said. “You don’t get an inflation problem when you have no velocity of money, but if we start to see velocity pick up, then I think we could start to change the thinking around future [Federal Reserve] policy.”

Sonders also says that valuations aren’t a concern yet, and that profit margins shouldn’t be a problem. “We know that profit margins are at or near all-time highs,” she said. “But unless you’re rolling over into a crash, it has not been historically a problem for the market coming off all-time highs in profit margins.”

 

 

 

Shiller: Look For Pockets Of Value Abroad

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller says that, while US equities look to be on the pricier side, stocks in other parts of the world are dirt-cheap.

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