“Sell in May and go away,” the old adage goes, meaning that investors should sell their stocks at the start of May and not buy back in again until September or October. But in a recent MarketWatch column, Mark Hulbert says the data shows that practicing such a strategy may be very unwise. “My review [...]
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Shiller on Housing, QE3
May 1, 2012
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Yale Economist Robert Shiller says he’s not sure if the housing market has bottomed, and says it’s likely that an environment of austerity is behind the recent economic slowdown. Shiller tells CNBC that another round of quantitative easing “might help, but I don’t know that it’s going to overwhelm the general mood of austerity which [...]
Read moreKrugman: Austerity — Not More Debt — Is The Danger
April 30, 2012
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Nobel Prize-winning Economist Paul Krugman is continuing to say that the U.S. needs to spend more — not undertake austerity measures — to get out of its economic malaise. Krugman tells CBS This Morning that European countries now undertaking austerity measures are showing how austerity in such situations makes the economy worse without even making [...]
Read moreGrantham on Incredibly Irrational Markets
April 27, 2012
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In his latest quarterly letter, GMO’s Jeremy Grantham offers some very interesting data on the disconnect between the stock market on one hand, and the economy and “fair value” of the stock market on the other. “This difference is massive — two-thirds of the time annual GDP growth and annual change in the fair value [...]
Read moreRitholtz: Don’t Believe the Hype; American Future Is Bright
April 27, 2012
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Barry Ritholtz of FusionIQ and The Big Picture blog says that, despite what the doom and gloom crowd says, America is not in decline. Ritholtz tells Yahoo! Finance’s Daily Ticker that “there’s a tendency for people to extrapolate the most recent experience out to infinity”, which is what many have done in expecting that the [...]
Read moreShiller: Housing Could Fall Further — But Not By Much
April 24, 2012
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Yale Economist Robert Shiller, who predicted the housing market crash, says he thinks home prices could fall further, but he doesn’t expect more major declines. Shiller tells FOX Business Network that he thinks prices “could fall further — not that much probably — because there’s a readjustment in our thinking. … Our long-run opinions about real [...]
Read moreHussman: Profit Margins Skewing Valuations
April 23, 2012
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John Hussman, whose funds had strong long-term track records before getting hit hard the past few years, says those who contend stocks are cheap are way off base. “I can’t emphasize enough how badly standard P/E metrics are being distorted by record (but reliably cyclical) profit margins, which remain about 50-70% above historical norms,” Hussman [...]
Read moreFisher on Why Today Is Like the Early ’90s
April 19, 2012
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Kenneth Fisher says the market and economic environment right now are reminding him of the early 1990s, and says it’s a good time to buy stocks — selectively. “Let me set the scene,” Fisher writes in his latest Forbes column. “It was just a few years after 1987’s Black Monday market crash and 1989’s Friday [...]
Read moreHistory Indicates Market Hasn’t Peaked, Says Hulbert
April 18, 2012
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MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert says that, if history is a guide, we’re not yet near the top of the stock market’s run. Citing a study from Ned Davis research, Hulbert says that historically sector performance has been a good indicator of market peaks. “The key is the average performance of the S&P 500’s sectors in the [...]
Read moreO’Shaughnessy Talks Stock Market Cycles
April 4, 2012
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Quantitative strategy guru James O’Shaughnessy says history indicates that the rest of this decade should at least be a decent one for stocks, and that the 20 years after that should be particularly good. O’Shaughnessy tells Yahoo! Finance’s Breakout that his firm studied market returns over 20-year periods and found that when stocks have outperformed [...]
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