The Guru Investor » Barton Biggs

Biggs Bullish, But Cautious

The Guru Investor — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 22:12:54 +0000

Hedge fund guru Barton Biggs says he’s bullish on stocks, “assuming that the world holds together”. Biggs says he’s still very nervous about the lack of progress regarding Europe’s debt crisis, and says the demise of the Euro would cause an economic “Apocalypse”. He adds that he’s “running a moderate net long of about 65%” with his portfolio.

Biggs Turns Bearish, Citing “Pathetic” Supercommittee Effort

The Guru Investor — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 19:18:33 +0000

Hedge fund guru Barton Biggs has turned bearish, saying he thinks the odds of a recession in the first half of 2012 have increased to about 60%-70%, and that the “current spurt in the U.S. economy … is going to fade as we get into next year.” Biggs tells Bloomberg that the apparent failure of the U.S. deficit-reduction supercommittee and the continuing trouble in Europe are behind his change in tune. He thinks we’ll see the stock market decline “at least back to the lows of last summer, and God forbid maybe even a testing of the lows of 2008-2009,” though he adds, “nothing is certain”. He says he won’t be net short in his portfolios, but will be “in a pretty neutral position”.

Biggs: “Rally Going to Continue for a While”

The Guru Investor — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 20:25:42 +0000

Hedge fund guru Barton Biggs, who had been reducing equity exposure late in the summer months, has recently reversed course and has continued to up his exposure since the announcement of the new plan to stem Europe’s debt crisis.

“This morning, all of the wise men of Europe and the economists are very negative about this European deal that was worked out last week,” Biggs tells Bloomberg. “The general feeling is that the right thing to do is to cut back on risk and that it is going to be a flop, and that all they did was kick the can not very far down the road again. I am inclined to feel differently.” He says that there is “a tremendous amount of money that’s trapped out of stocks”, and that the rally is “going to continue for a while.”

Biggs had reduced his net exposure to equities to about 20% in September. But by mid-October, it was up to 65%, and now it is at 80%, Bloomberg reports. He’s particularly high on certain tech sector and industrial sector picks.

Biggs High On Cash Amid Fear of Financial Crisis

The Guru Investor — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 23:41:47 +0000

Hedge fund guru Barton Biggs says he’s only 20% net long on equities in this market, and says we may be on the eve of another financial crisis. Biggs says policymakers have tools at their disposal to help, but have failed to come together to do so in Europe or the U.S. “In times like this, there’s nothing the matter with cash,” Biggs says. “I don’t think any place is a place to invest right now.” He adds that “When there is clarity, and when the authorities move and do something, emerging markets will be a fabulous place to invest. … But I’m not ready to make that bet yet.”

Biggs Likes “Old” Tech Stocks; Wary of Financials

The Guru Investor — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 15:05:10 +0000

Hedge fund guru Barton Biggs says he’s continuing to find opportunities in the stock market right now, though he’s not too bullish on financials. Biggs tells Bloomberg that worries about further housing-related writedowns and questions about the legitimacy of their book values make financials a question mark. One area he likes: “older” tech stocks like Intel and Cisco, which he says are now “incredibly cheap”.

Biggs Bullish, Despite Slowing Economy

The Guru Investor — Wed, 25 May 2011 19:24:19 +0000

Hedge fund guru Barton Biggs says the economy has slowed, but he remains bullish on U.S. stocks.

“The U.S. and the global economy have clearly slowed pretty significantly,” Biggs tells Bloomberg Surveillance. “That’s arousing the bears, who believe we’re going to slip back into a long soft patch at best or maybe even a double-dip at worst. For a number of reasons I don’t think that’s right.”

Biggs says investors are overreacting to news like the European debt crisis and the recent drop in housing starts, which was weather-related. One area he likes is large U.S. industrials. “I don’t see anything the matter with Deere and Caterpillar and the big American industrial companies, and in terms of valuation they’re still very reasonable,” he said.

Biggs also likes emerging markets, and is quite high on China. He says China has succeeded in slowing its overheating economy, but that growth will still be a solid 7% to 8%. “We can find a lot of attractive companies to own in China,” he says. “China is going to be a terrific stock market in the second half of the year.”

Biggs Likes Manufacturers, Capital Equipment Stocks

The Guru Investor — Wed, 11 May 2011 17:24:19 +0000

Hedge fund guru Barton Biggs says he has more confidence in the U.S. market than other markets around the world. “We’ve been through a period here where the bull case for the global economies has definitely weakened in the last week or so,” Biggs recently told Bloomberg. “[But] I still feel good about the U.S. market.” Biggs says the U.S. market puts investors on a more level playing field than those of other countries. He also says the recent decline in commodity prices should help the U.S. economy. He likes capital equipment stocks and manufacturing stocks, such as Caterpillar and Deere.

Biggs, Fisher, Birinyi Still Bullish

The Guru Investor — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 18:26:44 +0000

Several top strategists are saying that investors should stick with stocks as the bull market enters its third year.

Among them: hedge fund guru Barton Biggs. “I don’t think valuations are stretched,” Biggs told Canada’s Financial Post. “The next move in the S&P 500 is more likely to be up than down, and that move could be 10% to 15%.”

Laszlo Birinyi also remains bullish, saying that investors who have missed the first big wave of the bull will try to jump into the market to catch up. “These kinds of strong beginnings lead to long and durable bull markets,” he says. “While there will be corrections and while there will be pauses, we’re still of the view that this is a bull market that we expect to go on for several years.”

Two other top strategists, Kenneth Fisher and Byron Wien, are focusing on stocks that should benefit from solid economic growth, the Post reports.

Others aren’t as optimistic. PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian says markets are in a tug of war, with “improving endogenous growth dynamics in the U.S. and core Europe, and particularly Germany” on the one hand and headwinds like high and volatile oil prices, complex policy challenges, budget uncertainties and Europe’s peripheral debt crisis on the other, the Post reports. And Economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. says it’s “time to take risk off the table”.

Biggs Looks to Big, High-Quality Multi-Nationals

The Guru Investor — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 16:54:06 +0000

Hedge fund guru Barton Biggs says recent economic data is very encouraging, and says he expects the market to continue climbing a Wall of Worry. Biggs tells Bloomberg that he thinks smaller stocks, which have had a lengthy run of outperformance, aren’t the place to be. “I would definitely be betting against them, and betting for the big caps — the big-cap, high-quality stocks,” he says. Biggs also says the upheaval in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries hasn’t caused him to sell. One area that does have him concerned, however: the U.S. housing market.

Winters, Biggs on Where the Market Is Headed

The Guru Investor — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 18:03:12 +0000

Two top money managers, David Winters and Barton Biggs, are sounding bullish on U.S. stocks.

Winters, whose mutual funds have excellent long-term track records, told Bloomberg that benchmark indexes may reach record highs as the government helps stimulate economic growth. “Winters, who favors stocks in emerging economies in Asia such as Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea, said many U.S. companies still look attractive,” Bloomberg reports. “American equities will do ‘OK’ this year, he said.”

Biggs, meanwhile, told Bloomberg Radio that “the next move in the U.S. stock market is going to be up. … How much up? I don’t know. 10 percent if things are OK, 20 percent if the global economy really comes on strong.”