Bob Doll of Nuveen presents an optimistic picture of 2016, according to MarketWatch. Doll says, “My view is oil is going to stabilize at a low level, and we will see some of the consumer dividend get spent next year.” He continued: “So, the consumer’s going to be a bit better, oil’s going to be less of a headwind, so we’re going to be OK.” At the same time, Doll predicts that 2016 will be volatile. Yet, he maintains that corporate earnings, which could be challenged by a strong dollar, will likely be a key to the market’s overall success in 2016.
Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management says they “expect equities will outperform bonds over the next six to 12 months, although the ride is likely to be bumpy” in a recent Investment News piece. He describes bearish arguments as “overly negative,” noting that under current conditions “it would hardly be surprising to see equities and other risk assets lagging, but they are not.” He offers a more positive view: “The risk of a global recession appear low, and we think the world economy is more likely to accelerate rather than slow next year.”
Nuveen’s Bob Doll says this bull market and economic recovery has been the least believed of his career. But he says that has made for an excellent investment environment — and he doesn’t think we’re done.
A stronger dollar and falling oil prices tend to help the economy, but right now those two factors aren’t helping stocks, Nuveen’s Bob Doll says.
While many people are wondering whether the bull market is running out of steam, Jim Paulsen and some other top strategists think it has a ways to go.
Heading into 2014, Nuveen’s Bob Doll sees growth strengthening and a good year — though not as good as 2013 — for stocks.
Doll writes for Barrons that he expects the US economy to grow at a 3% clip in 2014, with growth strengthening thanks to a “litany of hopeful signs includes the housing recovery, falling oil prices, acceptable job growth, easing lending standards, low inflation, all-time high net worth, rising capital expenditures, less fiscal drag, and improving non-U.S. growth.” He thinks it’s likely that stock market gains will rely on earnings growth after the multiple expansion we’ve seen in the past year, and he thinks “high single digit or low double-digit percentage gains [for stocks] are not unreasonable” to expect, though he adds that a correction driven by technicals is likely sometime during the year. “We would use pullbacks as buying opportunities as most fundamentals continue to improve,” he says.
Doll also expects cyclical stocks to outperform defensive plays, the dollar to strengthen, and gold to fall. And he thinks the bond bear bear market will continue. One interesting stock-picking note: Doll said he prefers using dividend growth and free cash flow yield to straight dividend yield.
Nuveen Asset Management’s Bob Doll thinks the market’s next big move will be higher, but says it won’t happen until earnings and revenue growth pick up. “If global growths improves, the U.S. will participate, (but) we won’t lead the way,” Doll tells Yahoo! Finance’s Breakout, saying that he expects improvement in U.S. earnings and data, though not right away. He says that manufacturing data has been picking up both in the U.S. and abroad, however, making industrial stocks attractive. “They’re all ticking up, not just in the U.S., but around the world,” Doll says, referring to global purchasing manager surveys. He thinks that in the short run the “global growth trade is catching fire in other places that have been so depressed,” but he thinks “you have to have some money in the U.S.” as well. Doll says to keep an eye on the housing market, though. “In a fragile economy like we have, you cannot have a 100 basis point move up in interest rates in six or eight weeks and expect nothing to be touched,” he says, though he adds that he doesn’t think the rate increases have yet been enough to derail the economy.