El-Erian: “Classic Overshoot” In EMs Will Hurt Now, Create Opportunities Later

Mohamed El-Erian says we are seeing a “classic overshoot” to the downside in emerging markets right now, which should lead to more pain in the near term but opportunity over the longer term.

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Arnott: “You Don’t Get Bargains In The Absence Of Fear”

Fundamental indexing guru Rob Arnott says that to get bargains, you have to invest in places where fears are high. Right now, he says that means to look in places like emerging markets and Europe.
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Herro Talks EMs, Interest Rates, and What Worries Him

Top fund manager David Herro thinks emerging-market stocks remain overpriced, but he thinks there is a way for investors to benefit from emerging market growth.

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Top Fund Manager On Emerging Market “Misnomers”

Justin Leverenz, whose developing market fund is one of the best performers in its class over the past five and ten years, says he thinks a number of inaccurate views are leading investors to stay away from emerging markets.
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Herro: EMs Still Too Pricey

David Herro has been one of the top fund managers in the world for over a decade, and he says emerging markets are looking overvalued even after recent declines.

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Mobius: EM Selloff Temporary

Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius says he thinks the emerging market trouble that has seeped into the U.S. market a bit will be temporary, and will provide significant buying opportunities. Mobius tells CNBC that there’s “no good reason” for the EM declines, which appear to be the result of fears that money will flow out of EMs as the Federal Reserve tapers its quantitative easing program. He notes that emerging market central banks’ balance sheets in general remain far better than those of the U.S. and other developed markets. He does say that balance sheets of American corporations are very strong, and he expects to see a pick-up in U.S. capital spending, which he thinks will benefit emerging markets.

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OSAM: How To Win In Emerging Markets

Emerging markets can make for enticing investments, and new research from James O’Shaughnessy’s firm shows how fundamental-focused investors can really take advantage of EM opportunities.

“U.S. investors, and other investors around the world, tend to overweight their home country in their equity portfolio,” write O’Shaughnessy Asset Management’s Patrick O’Shaughnessy and Ashvin Viswanathan in a report available on the firm’s website. “By doing so, they miss out on considerable investment opportunities abroad.” They say that emerging markets are compelling for three key reasons right now:

  • home bias, which has meant that many U.S. investors “have little to no direct allocation to emerging market equities”;
  • valuation (emerging markets trade at a 31% discount to U.S. stocks using the 10-year cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio);
  • “huge mispricings” that are the result of less attention among analysts and less scrutiny for EM firms’ financial statements

That last point makes EMs fertile ground for fundamental-focused investors, O’Shaughnessy and Viswanathan say. They looked at stocks in the U.S., other developed markets, and emerging markets from 1995-2012 to see how those that rated highest using OSAM’s fundamental stock-picking factors fared vs. market averages. They found that in the U.S., the top decile of stocks using a Momentum Composite outperformed the broader U.S. market by 3.3% annualized. Those in the top decile based on dividend yield outperformed by 1.3%, while those in the top decile based on OSAM’s Value Composite outperformed by 4.7%. In other developed markets, the outperformance was greater (6.8% for the high-momentum stocks; 8.7% for high-dividend stocks; and 9.2% for best-value stocks).

In EMs, the outperformance was all in all still greater. High-momentum stocks outperformed the broader EM market by 6.6%; high-dividend stocks did so by 10.6%; and best-value stocks did so by 11.9%. They found that within all the individual EM countries they examined, the outperformance also occurred.

“The important point is that while these factors work everywhere, they work best in what we would argue are the least efficient markets,” O’Shaughnessy and Viswanathan write. “We believe these factors are immune to socio-economic and political idiosyncrasies because they are driven by human nature. In every country, unloved stocks have been left priced too cheaply, allowing a valuation-based strategy to thrive.”

While EMs come with their own unique sets of risks and often have higher volatility than developed markets, OSAM concludes that investors would be wise to use a portion of their portfolios for fundamentally sound EM stocks.

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