Contrarian guru David Dreman says policymakers have created “a form of financial Ebola” that is threatening to wipe out the savings of many Americans.
A periodic look through the archives of the greatest investor in history
In Berkshire Hathaway’s 1979 Letter to Shareholders, Warren Buffett talked about the impact that inflation and taxes can have on an equity portfolio and a business. Below is an excerpt from the letter.
Contrarian guru David Dreman says the Federal Reserve has been playing a dangerous, unsuccessful game by keeping interest rates so low for so long. But he says there are ways for investors to cure the “easy money hangover.”
Inflation has been picking up lately, and in a recent Seeking Alpha column Validea CEO John Reese looks at how you can use the advice of Warren Buffett and Joseph Piotroski to keep your portfolio ahead of the inflation curve.
Could 2014 finally be the year that long-simmering inflation fears boil over? Wells Capital’s Jim Paulsen thinks it just might be.
“In the last five or six years we’ve been worried about nothing but deflation and weak growth,” Paulsen tells Yahoo Finance’s Breakout, “so it’s very difficult to imagine that we might get to a point where we’re worried about an overheated economy again, but I think we’ve got a shot at that (this year).”
Paulsen says a number of factors — a new dovish Federal Reserve chairman, tightening labor market, rising factory capacity utilization rate, rising commodity prices — could combine to trigger inflation fears. “If you put all those together I think that could cause people to worry about overheating or inflation,” he says. To be clear, though, Paulsen is expecting only a small pickup in inflation this year. But he thinks that slight pickup could trigger bigger fears.
Jeffrey Gundlach thinks interest rates will soon rise, but, unlike fellow bond guru Bill Gross, he doesn’t think inflation is upon us.
Gundlach, in a web seminar, recently said that a paradigm shift has occurred in the past five years or so, according to AdvisorOne. “Over the majority of the [past three decades or so] we’ve seen a benign inflation period characterized by stable to falling interest rates,” he said. “It’s quite likely interest rates will now rise and boost the returns of government instruments.” But, he added that inflation can’t occur without corresponding increases in median household income, and he says that is falling, AdvisorOne reports.
But Gundlach is concerned about global food price inflation. “Believe it or not, food is the real concern, especially in developing countries,” he said. “In these areas, 40% of a person’s income will typically go toward food. If it goes high higher, it will have an outsize impact, and riots and other forms of civil unrest could occur.” He also discusses debt, saying that developing nations are “now better fiscal stewards than developing countries”.
Top fund manager Mihir Worah of PIMCO says not to be lulled into complacency by the low inflation we’ve seen in recent years.
“We expect global inflation over the next three to five years — or even the next five to 10 years — to be higher than it has been over the last 20 years,” Worah says in an interview posted on PIMCO’s site. “While we do not expect double-digit inflation, we do see inflation gradually climbing higher than the close-to-2% core numbers that we have gotten used to in much of the developed world.”
Worah says two main factors lead him to that conclusion: First, the serious debt problem in developed countries will likely be solved only via inflation; and second, a booming middle class in the emerging world could well lead to a secular rise in global commodities prices.
Worah talks about why he thinks inflation will be higher in emerging markets than developed markets, and why significant differentiation could occur within Europe in terms of inflation levels. He also talks about how to hedge a portfolio against inflation, with the core tool being developed market inflation-linked bonds.