It may not be magic, but hedge fund guru Joel Greenblatt’s “Magic Formula” sure is a market-beater, Validea CEO John Reese writes in his latest Forbes.com column.
Standout hedge fund manager Joel Greenblatt says his “Magic Formula” is finding more value in large-cap stocks than small caps right now. Greenblatt told CNBC that, based on a review of decades of history, he’s finding that large-caps are in the 38th percentile towards expensive right now, meaning they’ve been cheaper than they are now 62% of the time over that several-decade span. From these levels, stocks on average have gone on to gain between 6% and 10% over the next year, he says. Small caps, however, are in the 5th percentile, meaning they’ve been cheaper 95% of the time. Such levels have historically led to average returns of -3% over the ensuing year. Greenblatt notes that those valuations involved averages, and that there are individual stocks trading for much cheaper. He also talks about his strategy, and how the “Magic Formula” works.
Every other issue of The Validea Hot List newsletter examines in detail one of John Reese’s computerized Guru Strategies. This latest issue looks at the Joel Greenblatt-inspired strategy, which has averaged annual returns of 10.0% since its December 2005 inception vs. 4.4% for the S&P 500. Below is an excerpt from the newsletter, along with several top-scoring stock ideas from the Greenblatt-based investment strategy.
Taken from the December 6, 2013 issue of The Validea Hot List
Guru Spotlight: Joel Greenblatt
Anyone who has ever put cash in the market knows that making money in stocks is hard. But what a lot of investors don’t realize is that while it is difficult, it doesn’t have to be complicated. You don’t need incomprehensible, esoteric formulas and you don’t need to spend every waking hour analyzing stocks — Joel Greenblatt has proved that.
Back in 2005, Greenblatt created a stir in the investment world with the publication of The Little Book that Beats The Market, a concise, easy-to-understand bestseller that showed how investors could produce outstanding long-term returns using his “Magic Formula” — a purely quantitative approach had just two variables: return on capital and earnings yield.
Greenblatt’s back-testing found that focusing on stocks that rated highly in those areas would have produced a remarkable 30.8 percent return from 1988 through 2004, more than doubling the S&P 500′s 12.4 percent return during that period. Greenblatt also posted impressive numbers in his money management experience, with his hedge fund, Gotham Capital, producing returns of 40 percent per year over a span of more than two decades.
Written in an extremely layperson-friendly manner, Greenblatt’s “Little Book” — it’s only 176 pages long and small enough to fit in your jacket pocket — broke investing down into terms even an elementary schooler could understand. In fact, Greenblatt said he wrote the book as a way to teach his five children how to make money for themselves. Using several simple analogies, he explains a variety of stock market principles. One of these he often returns to involves Jason, a sixth-grade classmate of Greenblatt’s youngest son who makes a bundle selling gum to fellow students. Greenblatt uses Jason’s business as a jumping off point to explain issues like supply, demand, taxation, and rates of return.
In reality, the “Magic Formula” is less about magic than it is about simple, common sense investment theory. As Greenblatt explains, the two-step formula is designed to buy stock in good companies at bargain prices — something that other great value investors, like Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, and John Neff also did. The return on capital variable accomplishes the first part of that goal (buying good companies), because it looks at how much profit a firm is generating using its capital. The earnings yield variable, meanwhile, accomplishes the second part of the task — buying those good companies’ stocks on the cheap. The earnings yield is similar to the inverse of the price/earnings ratio; stocks with high earnings yields are taking in a relatively high amount of earnings compared to the price of their stock.
To choose stocks, Greenblatt simply ranked all stocks by return on capital, with the best being number 1, the second number 2, and so forth. Then, he ranked them in the same way by earnings yield. He then added up the two rankings, and invested in the stocks with the lowest combined numerical ranking.
The slightly unconventional ways in which Greenblatt calculates earnings yield and return on capital also involve some good common sense — and are particularly interesting given the recent credit crisis. For example, in figuring out the capital part of the return on capital variable and the earnings part of the earnings yield variable, he doesn’t use simple earnings; instead, he uses earnings before interest and taxation. The reason: These parts of the equations should see how well a company’s underlying business is doing, and taxes and debt payments can obscure that picture.
In addition, in figuring earnings yield, Greenblatt divides EBIT not by the total price of a company’s stock, but instead by enterprise value — which includes not only the total price of the firm’s stock, but also its debt. This give the investor an idea of what kind of yield they could expect if buying the entire firm — including both its assets and its debts. In the past few months, we’ve seen how misleading conventionally derived P/E ratios and earnings yields could be, since earnings had been propped up by the use of huge amounts of debt. Greenblatt’s earnings yield calculation is a way to find stocks that are producing a good earnings yield that isn’t contingent on a high debt load.
In my Greenblatt model, I calculate return on capital and earnings yield in the same ways that Greenblatt lays out in his book.
We added the Greenblatt portfolio to our site in January of 2009, but have been tracking its performance internally for several years, and its underlying model has factored into our Hot List selections for the past five years or so. So far, the model has been a strong performer, with some big ups and downs. Since we began tracking our 10-stock Greenblatt-based portfolio in late 2005, the S&P 500 has gained just 41.7%; the Greenblatt-based portfolio has gained 114.9% — that’s 10.0% annualized, vs. 4.4% annualized for the S&P (all performance data through Dec. 4). The portfolio beat the market in 2006 and 2007, and then did what few funds have done: limit losses in what for stocks was a terrible 2008, and handily beat the market in the 2009 rebound. It fell 26.3% in ’08 — not good, but much better than the S&P 500′s 38.5% loss — and surged 63.1% in 2009, vs. 23.5% for the S&P. After beating the market again in 2010, it struggled in 2011 and 2012, however. But Greenblatt stresses that the strategy won’t beat the market every month or even every year, which is important to remember. In fact, during that stellar 17-year period he covered in his book, there were even times when it lagged the market for three straight years. But that, he says, is why it works over the long haul: Undisciplined investors bail on the strategy, allowing those who stick with it to pick up the exceptional bargains they leave behind.
Indeed, in 2013, the Greenblatt-based portfolio has bounced back strong, returning more than 50%. Below is a look at its current holdings.
One note: Because of the way financial and utility companies are financed (i.e. with large amounts of debt), Greenblatt excludes them from his screening process, so I do the same. He also doesn’t include foreign stocks, so I exclude those from my model as well.
EBIX Inc. (EBIX)
Western Refining, Inc. (WNR)
ITT Educational Services (ESI)
Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
Weight Watchers International, Inc. (WTW)
AmSurg Corp (AMSG)
PDL BioPharma, Inc. (PDLI)
AFC Enterprises Inc. (AFCE
In his latest Seeking Alpha column, Validea CEO John Reese takes a look at a luxury goods stock that’s getting strong scores from his guru-inspired models: Coach Inc.
Reese notes that Coach shares have stumbled over the past year and a half, with the latest negative catalyst being a downward revision to its forward guidance. “Some weakness in North America, in part due to increased competition, is a driving factor behind the guidance change. Investors also may be nervous that Coach is in the process of changing up its business model, shifting from a handbag/accessory specialist to more of a ‘lifestyle brand,’ a la Louis Vuitton,” Reese explains. “But it looks like the declines are an overreaction. That’s what my Joel Greenblatt- and Benjamin Graham-based approaches … are telling me. Both of these models look for companies with strong balance sheets that are trading at attractive prices, and that’s just what they see in Coach.”
Reese says the Graham- and Greenblatt-inspired models recently triggered a “Trade Alert” for Coach. Historically, stocks that have triggered this alert have gone on to gain an average of about 19% over the next six months, beating the S&P 500 about 70% of the time. Reese looks at the specific reasons why these two models are high on Coach, and why the firm has the sort of “durable competitive advantage” that Warren Buffett likes to see.
In his latest RealMoney column, Validea CEO John Reese takes a look at Joel Greenblatt’s remarkably simple — and remarkably successful — investment strategy.
“For many years, I have been studying how great investors invest, and almost always, they use five or 10 or more variables, so they can look at a stock and its underlying company from a variety of perspectives,” writes Reese. “I’ve never seen an exceptional strategist use one variable, but there is one of note [Greenblatt] who uses just two, and this is as simple as stock analysis gets.”
Reese looks at the unique ways Greenblatt calculates those two metrics — return on capital and earnings yield. He also looks at three stocks that currently get high marks from his Greenblatt-based model, which is up more than 50% in 2013. Among them: Weight Watchers International.
Hedge fund guru Joel Greenblatt has produced remarkable returns over the long haul using what he calls his Magic Formula. But in his latest column for Forbes.com, Validea CEO John Reese says there is much more to Greenblatt’s approach than magic.
“While the remarkably simple strategy includes just two variables, Greenblatt — much like the magician who pulls a rabbit from his hat — possesses no real magical powers,” Reese writes. “Instead, his success, too, is the product of hard work, an understanding of human nature, and lots and lots of discipline.”
Reese talks about how Greenblatt’s strategy works, and how the Guru Strategy he bases on Greenblatt’s approach has fared. He also talks about just how important a good mental approach is when using such a strategy, which often targets unloved, beaten-down stocks. Reese offers five picks from his Greenblatt inspired model. Among them: much-maligned Herbalife.