While stocks have been climbing higher, fundamental indexing guru Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates hasn’t changed his outlook for the coming decade — and it’s not an optimistic one. In a recent column for MarketWatch, Mark Hulbert looks at a forecasting model Arnott uses that has been highly accurate over the past century-plus. The model […]
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Tag Archives: Rob Arnott
Arnott: Time To Take Risk Off Table
February 15, 2013 
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Top fund manager Rob Arnott says that it’s becoming “embarrassing” to admit you’re a bear lately, and that means it’s time to be cautious. “If you look at advisor sentiment surveys, you find that right now there are fewer bears than have been seen in these surveys except at extreme major market tops, such as […]
Read moreArnott: “3-D Hurricane” Still Bound For U.S.
January 24, 2013 0 Comments
Though the market and economy have been looking up recently, Rob Arnott says he still expects a “3-D Hurricane” to cause problems in coming years. The three Ds — debt, deficit, and demographics — should cause investors to lower their expectations, Arnott said during the keynote session of the ETF Virtual Summit, Advisor One reports. […]
Read moreWhere Arnott Sees Value
October 22, 2012 0 Comments
Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates and PIMCO is finding value in emerging market stocks and high-yield bonds. Arnott tells Brett Arends of The Wall Street Journal that emerging-market stocks have lagged those in the U.S. over the past five years, and are now considerably more attractive than U.S. stocks. And, while high-yield bond yields have […]
Read moreTop Forecasting Model Offers Bad News
September 21, 2012 0 Comments
Wondering how the stock market will do over the next 10 years? MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert says one pretty reliable forecasting model has a disappointing answer. Hulbert says that the model — a variant of the “dividend yield model” — is indicating stocks will return just 5.6% annualized over the next decade, and that’s before inflation. […]
Read moreArnott Sees Opportunities in Emerging Markets
August 22, 2012 0 Comments
Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates and PIMCO says emerging markets continue to offer some of the better investing opportunities. “Emerging markets, for the most part, don’t have large deficits; for the most part don’t have large debt burdens,” Arnott says in an interview with Index Universe’s Olly Ludwig. “Not because they wouldn’t be willing to […]
Read moreArnott Likes EMs Over U.S. — For Stocks And Gov’t Bonds
June 22, 2012 0 Comments
Fundamental indexing guru Rob Arnott says U.S. stocks aren’t cheap, and thinks emerging market equities are offering much more value. “U.S. stocks are actually pretty expensive today, and here’s why,” Arnott recently told Fortune. “Earnings regularly swing above or below trend by a wide margin. Wall Street is brilliant at taking peak earnings and predicting […]
Read moreArnott on the Courage to Rebalance
June 1, 2012 0 Comments
While most investors feel crushed when major bear markets hit, Rob Arnott says that they are missing a key point that turns conventional thinking on its head. In a piece for IndexUniverse.com, Arnott says that most investors measure wealth in terms of their portfolio’s dollar value. But, he says, a better gauge is “the real […]
Read moreArnott Looks to Emerging Markets, Thanks to Demographics, Deficits
March 14, 2012 0 Comments
PIMCO’s Rob Arnott says a major demographic shift means bad news for U.S. markets in the coming decades, though he says smart baby boomers will still be able to hit their retirement goals within a year or two of their original plans. Arnott tells The Wall Street Journal that this is the first year ever […]
Read moreArnott On Why It Wasn’t A Lost Decade
December 5, 2011 5 Comments
The “Lost Decade”: It’s a moniker that many stock market commentators have applied to the 2000s, a decade in which we saw two major bear markets and the S&P 500 benchmark ended up well in the red. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. “It was only a lost decade if you anchored on equities […]
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